Analysis

Universe · Flips · Drift signals · 2026-04-10 23:44:37 · i

Universe — All games

Every tracked game (post-filter), regardless of whether the favorite flipped or drifted. Use this as the baseline. 7,044 games, 6,535 with known outcomes.

55.5%

Favorite wins

22.3%

Underdog wins

22.2%

Draws

1.59

Avg fav open

8.35%

Avg book margin

-15.7%

ROI: bet fav at open

flat 1u, all known games

-23.4%

ROI: bet dog at open

-1.72%

Avg CLV

closing line vs opening, fav side

By sport

Sport

Games

Fav win

Dog win

Avg drift

Avg swing

Fav ROI

Dog ROI

Soccer Soccer

2,862

55.1%

23.2%

25.26

29.06

-3.7%

-4.1%

Tennis Tennis

1,982

52.7%

17.1%

1.98

3.38

-30.4%

-52.5%

Basketball Basketball

919

65.4%

30.4%

1.13

2.40

-12.7%

-8.3%

IceHockey IceHockey

626

52.4%

20.8%

1.72

4.18

-25.4%

-40.8%

Baseball Baseball

114

51.8%

36.0%

2.05

3.13

-27.6%

-14.3%

CounterStrike CounterStrike

46.2%

11.5%

0.55

3.06

-35.0%

-73.9%

Curling Curling

75.0%

0.0%

-0.26

0.33

+14.5%

-100.0%

Dota2 Dota2

100.0%

0.0%

-0.05

0.38

+16.0%

-100.0%

Handball Handball

0.0%

100.0%

0.00

-100.0%

+95.0%

Market efficiency by opening odds

Implied probability vs actual win rate. Negative edge means the market overpriced the favorite (bet against). Positive edge means underestimated.

Bracket

Games

Implied

Actual

Edge

Avg swing

Fav ROI

Dog ROI

1.01-1.19

1,020

91.2%

78.2%

-12.9%

1.68

-14.2%

-38.1%

1.20-1.39

1,333

77.8%

63.4%

-14.4%

4.70

-18.4%

-36.8%

1.40-1.59

1,380

67.3%

51.7%

-15.7%

7.67

-23.4%

-25.7%

1.60-1.79

1,086

59.4%

46.0%

-13.4%

12.72

-22.4%

-23.4%

1.80-1.99

579

53.5%

46.3%

-7.2%

26.33

-13.1%

+1.5%

2.00-2.49

923

45.1%

46.5%

1.3%

38.76

+3.3%

-8.8%

2.50-3.49

213

38.1%

34.3%

-3.9%

55.07

-9.7%

+14.7%

Closing line value

Did the line move toward the favorite, away from them, or stay stable? CLV is one of the strongest predictors of long-term ROI.

Line shortened (toward fav)

3,744

Win rate: 90.2% ROI: +39.5%

Line stable (±2%)

209

Win rate: 78.0% ROI: -15.2%

Line drifted (toward dog)

2,582

Win rate: 3.4% ROI: -95.8%

Flips — Favorite crossed 2.0

Games where the pre-game favorite (open < 2.0) saw their odds reach ≥ 2.0 at any point during live tracking. 3,013 flip events.

3,013
Total flips

25%

Fav still won

766

36%

Dog won

1090

33%

Draws

991

40%

Recovered

end < 2.0 again

-59.5%

ROI: bet fav at open

flips only

+27.6%

ROI: bet dog at open

flips only

Flips by sport

Sport

Flips

Fav win

Dog win

Draw

Recovery

Fav ROI

Dog ROI

Soccer Soccer

1,179

32.1%

26.6%

28.7%

32.7%

-45.9%

+41.0%

Tennis Tennis

945

11.1%

35.6%

51.9%

41.3%

-82.4%

-2.6%

Basketball Basketball

503

40.0%

54.1%

6.0%

48.5%

-42.0%

+60.9%

IceHockey IceHockey

312

22.1%

40.1%

36.9%

53.8%

-66.1%

+13.4%

Baseball Baseball

18.6%

67.8%

13.6%

28.8%

-71.9%

+56.5%

CounterStrike CounterStrike

13.3%

20.0%

66.7%

60.0%

-77.7%

-54.8%

Biggest odds swings

Exclude draws

Soccer AC Milan vs Parma Calcio 1913 UNDERDOG

Open 1.31 → Peak 300.00 → End 301.00

2026-02-22 18:34:18 · Score: 0-1

Soccer Barcelona vs Girona FC UNDERDOG

Open 1.34 → Peak 300.00 → End 301.00

2026-02-16 21:31:00 · Score: 2-1

Soccer Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDERDOG

Open 1.73 → Peak 300.00 → End 301.00

2026-02-27 20:50:36 · Score: 1-0

Soccer AZ Alkmaar vs FC Noah UNDERDOG

Open 1.79 → Peak 300.00 → End 163.00

2026-02-19 17:26:52 · Score: 1-0

Soccer Lens vs AS Monaco UNDERDOG

Open 1.82 → Peak 300.00 → End 301.00

2026-02-21 17:31:48 · Score: 2-3

Soccer Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Brestois UNDERDOG

Open 1.91 → Peak 300.00 → End 301.00

2026-02-20 19:48:48 · Score: 2-0

Soccer Tigres UANL vs CF Pachuca UNDERDOG

Open 1.50 → Peak 251.00 → End 251.00

2026-02-21 02:49:18 · Score: 1-2

Soccer Lille OSC vs Red Star Belgrade UNDERDOG

Open 1.53 → Peak 251.00 → End 251.00

2026-02-19 20:46:48 · Score: 0-1

Soccer Sampdoria vs SSC Bari UNDERDOG

Open 1.70 → Peak 235.00 → End 187.00

2026-02-27 20:29:25 · Score: 0-2

Soccer Inter Milan vs FK Bodo/Glimt UNDERDOG

Open 1.78 → Peak 235.00 → End 235.00

2026-02-18 20:21:18 · Score: 3-1

Soccer EC Bahia vs O´Higgins FC UNDERDOG

Open 1.97 → Peak 235.00 → End 235.00

2026-02-18 22:00:48 · Score: 1-0

Soccer Academia Puerto Cabello vs Estudiantes de Merida FC UNDERDOG

Open 1.13 → Peak 226.00 → End 226.00

2026-02-28 00:44:59 · Score: 1-2

Soccer Celtic FC vs Hibernian Edinburgh FC UNDERDOG

Open 1.44 → Peak 226.00 → End 226.00

2026-02-22 15:25:48 · Score: 1-2

Soccer Boluspor vs Istanbulspor AS UNDERDOG

Open 1.65 → Peak 226.00 → End 226.00

2026-02-21 13:34:48 · Score: 0-1

Soccer Orlando City SC vs New York Red Bulls UNDERDOG

Open 1.80 → Peak 226.00 → End 226.00

2026-02-22 00:47:48 · Score: 0-2

Soccer Union Brescia vs US Pergolettese 1932 UNDERDOG

Open 1.67 → Peak 201.00 → End 201.00

2026-02-16 20:20:30 · Score: 2-1

Soccer Al Duhail SC vs Al Shorta SC Baghdad UNDERDOG

Open 1.75 → Peak 201.00 → End 201.00

2026-02-16 18:22:00 · Score: 3-2

Soccer LD Alajuelense vs Sporting San Jose FC UNDERDOG

Open 1.76 → Peak 201.00 → End 201.00

2026-02-16 00:10:30 · Score: 1-2

Soccer Al Salt vs Al Jazeera Amman UNDERDOG

Open 1.81 → Peak 201.00 → End 201.00

2026-02-19 18:49:18 · Score: 0-2

Soccer MKS Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Glogow UNDERDOG

Open 1.87 → Peak 201.00 → End 201.00

2026-02-21 18:50:18 · Score: 0-1

Highest peakers (favorite still won)

Games where the favorite drifted hugely but came back to win — the most "missed" units.

Soccer *** vs *** FAV WON

Open 1.65 → Peak 96.00 → End 1.03

2026-02-15 23:37:49 · Score: 0-3 · 94.35u missed

Soccer Real Sociedad vs Real Oviedo FAV WON

Open 1.56 → Peak 32.00 → End 6.40

2026-02-21 13:43:48 · Score: 3-2 · 30.44u missed

IceHockey Quebec Remparts vs Cape Breton Screaming Eagles FAV WON

Open 1.55 → Peak 29.00 → End 1.02

2026-02-26 23:08:24 · Score: 2-0 · 27.45u missed

Soccer Sheffield United U21 vs Wigan Athletic U21 FAV WON

Open 1.53 → Peak 17.00 → End 1.05

2026-02-17 14:20:00 · Score: 3-2 · 15.47u missed

Soccer FC Veres Rivne vs SC Poltava FAV WON

Open 1.50 → Peak 13.00 → End 1.05

2026-02-20 13:40:48 · Score: 3-2 · 11.50u missed

Soccer SonderjyskE vs Silkeborg IF FAV WON

Open 1.90 → Peak 12.00 → End 1.03

2026-02-16 18:09:30 · Score: 2-1 · 10.10u missed

Soccer CA Excursionistas vs Deportivo Merlo FAV WON

Open 1.65 → Peak 11.00 → End 1.03

2026-02-15 23:32:49 · Score: 1-2 · 9.35u missed

Basketball Houston Rockets vs Orlando Magic FAV WON

Open 1.55 → Peak 10.00 → End 1.08

2026-02-27 01:11:21 · Score: 106-101 · 8.45u missed

IceHockey Colorado Eagles vs Coachella Valley Firebirds FAV WON

Open 1.67 → Peak 9.77 → End 1.06

2026-02-21 04:21:18 · Score: 3-4 · 8.10u missed

Basketball Angeles CD Mexico vs Frayles de Guasave FAV WON

Open 1.35 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.03

2026-02-21 03:30:48 · Score: 84-76 · 7.65u missed

Soccer Al Rayyan vs Al Ahli Doha FAV WON

Open 1.39 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.03

2026-02-22 18:59:18 · Score: 2-1 · 7.61u missed

Basketball Ehime Orange Vikings vs Kumamoto Volters FAV WON

Open 1.57 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.04

2026-02-21 06:17:48 · Score: 83-76 · 7.43u missed

IceHockey Nashville Predators vs Chicago Blackhawks FAV WON

Open 1.60 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.01

2026-02-27 01:17:17 · Score: 2-3 · 7.40u missed

Basketball BK Opava vs SLUNETA Usti nad Labem FAV WON

Open 1.75 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.04

2026-02-18 17:11:18 · Score: 76-64 · 7.25u missed

Basketball Kagoshima Rebnise BC vs Rizing Fukuoka FAV WON

Open 1.77 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.04

2026-02-21 06:17:22 · Score: 70-56 · 7.23u missed

Basketball Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers FAV WON

Open 1.28 → Peak 8.50 → End 1.17

2026-02-28 00:35:59 · Score: 119-120 · 7.22u missed

Soccer Gzira United vs Mosta FC FAV WON

Open 1.99 → Peak 9.00 → End 1.00

2026-02-22 13:00:18 · Score: 1-0 · 7.01u missed

IceHockey Graz 99ers vs EC KAC Klagenfurt FAV WON

Open 1.50 → Peak 8.00 → End 1.15

2026-02-22 17:42:48 · Score: 3-2 · 6.50u missed

Basketball Al Ittihad Bahrain vs Samaheej FAV WON

Open 1.39 → Peak 7.85 → End 1.09

2026-02-19 17:36:18 · Score: 71-79 · 6.46u missed

Basketball BG Gottingen vs VfL Kirchheim Knights FAV WON

Open 1.57 → Peak 7.85 → End 1.30

2026-02-21 19:10:48 · Score: 80-82 · 6.28u missed

Drift signals — Favorite +1.0 after 10 min

Games where the pre-game favorite's live odds drifted ≥ 1.0 from open after 10+ minutes of tracking. We track max odds reached, signal odds, and outcome. 3,438 signals.

3,438
Drift signals

15.3%

Fav still won

527 / 3438

-49.8%

ROI at signal

bet fav back at signal odds

3.65

Avg signal odds

1.76

Avg open odds

By opening odds

Bracket

Wins

Win%

Sig odds

Max odds

Sig ROI

Edge

Kelly

1.00-1.20

188

16.5%

2.62

9.23

-63.6%

-21.7%

0.00%

1.20-1.40

491

16.9%

2.69

13.21

-55.6%

-20.2%

0.00%

1.40-1.60

729

13.3%

2.98

15.38

-61.9%

-20.2%

0.00%

1.60-1.80

674

103

15.3%

3.29

21.55

-52.9%

-15.1%

0.00%

1.80-2.00

421

16.4%

3.80

38.27

-45.4%

-9.9%

0.00%

2.00-2.50

723

120

16.6%

4.83

52.20

-31.0%

-4.1%

0.00%

2.50+

212

11.3%

5.87

59.43

-44.8%

-5.7%

0.00%

Signal ROI by opening odds bracket

1.00-1.20

-63.6%

n=188

1.20-1.40

-55.6%

n=491

1.40-1.60

-61.9%

n=729

1.60-1.80

-52.9%

n=674

1.80-2.00

-45.4%

n=421

2.00-2.50

-31.0%

n=723

2.50+

-44.8%

n=212

By sport

Sport

Win%

Sig odds

Max odds

Sig ROI

Edge

Soccer Soccer

1,888

17.2%

4.33

46.43

-38.1%

-5.9%

Tennis Tennis

806

3.6%

2.67

8.79

-90.2%

-33.9%

Basketball Basketball

410

29.0%

2.70

5.91

-24.8%

-8.0%

IceHockey IceHockey

272

18.0%

3.38

10.15

-41.9%

-11.6%

Baseball Baseball

9.6%

3.20

7.60

-74.7%

-21.6%

CounterStrike CounterStrike

0.0%

2.63

7.83

-100.0%

-38.0%

By max drift size

Max drift

Win%

Sig odds

Max odds

Sig ROI

Edge

+1.0-2.0

500

54.2%

2.72

3.01

+52.0%

17.5%

+2.0-3.0

257

40.1%

3.01

4.12

+29.0%

6.9%

+3.0-5.0

388

24.2%

3.25

5.62

-9.9%

-6.5%

+5.0-10.0

994

4.1%

3.27

9.07

-82.7%

-26.5%

+10.0+

1,299

1.4%

4.54

66.70

-91.2%

-20.6%

Top drift winners (favorite recovered)

Soccer *** vs *** WON · Away

Open 1.65 → Signal 3.35 → Max 96.00 +1.7 drift

*** · signal: 1-1 @ 29m · final: 0-3

IceHockey Chippewa Steel vs Anchorage Wolverines WON · Away

Open 2.42 → Signal 5.30 → Max 51.00 +2.9 drift

Anchorage Wolverines · signal: 2-0 @ 10m · final: 4-5

Soccer Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Flora Tallinn WON · Away

Open 2.23 → Signal 7.20 → Max 44.00 +5.0 drift

FC Flora Tallinn · signal: 1-0 @ 1h 2m · final: 1-2

Soccer Real Sociedad vs Real Oviedo WON · Home

Open 1.56 → Signal 4.90 → Max 32.00 +3.3 drift

Real Sociedad · signal: 0-1 @ 1h 39m · final: 3-2

IceHockey Quebec Remparts vs Cape Breton Screaming Eagles WON · Home

Open 1.55 → Signal 7.20 → Max 29.00 +5.7 drift

Quebec Remparts · signal: 2-3 @ 2h 4m · final: 2-0

Soccer Al Shahaniya SC vs Qatar SC WON · Away

Open 2.10 → Signal 5.20 → Max 29.00 +3.1 drift

Qatar SC · signal: 1-0 @ 28m · final: 3-4

Soccer Darajani Gogo vs Mombasa United FC WON · Away

Open 2.52 → Signal 9.00 → Max 26.00 +6.5 drift

Mombasa United FC · signal: 1-0 @ 43m · final: 1-2

Soccer Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Independiente Avellaneda WON · Home

Open 2.64 → Signal 12.00 → Max 23.00 +9.4 drift

Independiente Rivadavia · signal: 1-2 @ 1h 18m · final: 3-2

Soccer Marumo Gallants FC (Reserves) vs Lamontville Golden Arrows (Reserves) WON · Home

Open 2.41 → Signal 11.00 → Max 21.00 +8.6 drift

Marumo Gallants FC (Reserves) · signal: 1-2 @ 1h 16m · final: 3-2

Soccer Guarany de Bage RS vs Inter de Santa Maria WON · Home

Open 2.42 → Signal 5.10 → Max 21.00 +2.7 drift

Guarany de Bage RS · signal: 0-1 @ 11m · final: 3-2

Soccer Sheffield United U21 vs Wigan Athletic U21 WON · Home

Open 1.53 → Signal 2.55 → Max 17.00 +1.0 drift

Sheffield United U21 · signal: 0-1 @ 28m · final: 3-2

Soccer Carrick Rangers FC (Reserves) vs Coleraine FC (Reserves) WON · Away

Open 2.03 → Signal 4.70 → Max 17.00 +2.7 drift

Coleraine FC (Reserves) · signal: 1-0 @ 31m · final: 1-2

Soccer FC Luzern vs FC Basel WON · Home

Open 2.26 → Signal 9.00 → Max 17.00 +6.7 drift

FC Luzern · signal: 1-2 @ 1h 29m · final: 3-2

Soccer Club Atlas De Guadalajara vs Atletico San Luis WON · Home

Open 2.36 → Signal 3.80 → Max 17.00 +1.4 drift

Club Atlas De Guadalajara · signal: 0-1 @ 10m · final: 3-2

Soccer RFC Seraing U21 vs Daring Brussels U21 WON · Home

Open 2.28 → Signal 4.10 → Max 15.00 +1.8 drift

RFC Seraing U21 · signal: 0-1 @ 19m · final: 3-2

Soccer MAS Maghreb Fes vs Kawkab AC Marrakech WON · Home

Open 2.18 → Signal 14.00 → Max 14.00 +11.8 drift

MAS Maghreb Fes · signal: 1-0 @ 1h 1m · final: 1-0

Soccer FC Veres Rivne vs SC Poltava WON · Home

Open 1.50 → Signal 2.80 → Max 13.00 +1.3 drift

FC Veres Rivne · signal: 0-1 @ 18m · final: 3-2

Soccer SonderjyskE vs Silkeborg IF WON · Home

Open 1.90 → Signal 2.90 → Max 12.00 +1.0 drift

SonderjyskE · signal: 0-1 @ 25m · final: 2-1

Soccer Durham FC (Wom) vs Sunderland AFC (Siev) WON · Away

Open 2.18 → Signal 6.40 → Max 12.00 +4.2 drift

Sunderland AFC (Siev) · signal: 1-0 @ 41m · final: 1-2

Soccer Houston Dynamo vs Chicago Fire WON · Home

Open 2.30 → Signal 6.20 → Max 12.00 +3.9 drift

Houston Dynamo · signal: 0-1 @ 53m · final: 2-1

Biggest drift losses (favorite lost)

Soccer AC Milan vs Parma Calcio 1913 LOST · Home

Open 1.31 → Signal 2.35 → Max 300.00 +1.0 drift

AC Milan · signal: 0-0 @ 2h 10m · final: 0-1

Soccer Girona FC vs Barcelona LOST · Away

Open 1.34 → Signal 2.35 → Max 300.00 +1.0 drift

Barcelona · signal: 1-1 @ 2h 6m · final: 2-1

Soccer Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa LOST · Away

Open 1.73 → Signal 8.00 → Max 300.00 +6.3 drift

Aston Villa · signal: 1-0 @ 1h 3m · final: 1-0

Soccer FC Noah vs AZ Alkmaar LOST · Away

Open 1.79 → Signal 6.80 → Max 300.00 +5.0 drift

AZ Alkmaar · signal: 1-0 @ 1h 42m · final: 1-0

Soccer Lens vs AS Monaco LOST · Home

Open 1.82 → Signal 2.90 → Max 300.00 +1.1 drift

Lens · signal: 2-2 @ 2h 2m · final: 2-3

Soccer Stade Brestois vs Olympique de Marseille LOST · Away

Open 1.91 → Signal 3.10 → Max 300.00 +1.2 drift

Olympique de Marseille · signal: 1-0 @ 40m · final: 2-0

Soccer Omonia Nicosia vs HNK Rijeka LOST · Home

Open 2.03 → Signal 3.05 → Max 300.00 +1.0 drift

Omonia Nicosia · signal: 0-0 @ 1h 55m · final: 0-1

Soccer Juventus vs Como LOST · Home

Open 2.15 → Signal 4.10 → Max 300.00 +1.9 drift

Juventus · signal: 0-1 @ 36m · final: 0-2

Soccer Getafe vs Sevilla LOST · Home

Open 2.35 → Signal 5.30 → Max 300.00 +3.0 drift

Getafe · signal: 0-0 @ 47m · final: 0-1

Soccer 1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen LOST · Away

Open 2.37 → Signal 5.30 → Max 300.00 +2.9 drift

Bayer 04 Leverkusen · signal: 1-0 @ 57m · final: 1-0

Soccer Cagliari vs Lecce LOST · Home

Open 2.41 → Signal 3.45 → Max 300.00 +1.0 drift

Cagliari · signal: 0-0 @ 1h 49m · final: 0-2

Soccer Levante vs Deportivo Alaves LOST · Away

Open 2.70 → Signal 5.80 → Max 300.00 +3.1 drift

Deportivo Alaves · signal: 0-0 @ 1h 5m · final: 1-0

Soccer Brentford vs Brighton and Hove Albion LOST · Home

Open 2.32 → Signal 5.10 → Max 277.00 +2.8 drift

Brentford · signal: 0-1 @ 52m · final: 0-2

Soccer Olympiacos Piraeus vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen LOST · Home

Open 2.40 → Signal 10.00 → Max 277.00 +7.6 drift

Olympiacos Piraeus · signal: 0-1 @ 1h 57m · final: 0-2

Soccer Tigres UANL vs CF Pachuca LOST · Home

Open 1.50 → Signal 7.00 → Max 251.00 +5.5 drift

Tigres UANL · signal: 1-1 @ 2h 1m · final: 1-2

Soccer Lille OSC vs Red Star Belgrade LOST · Home

Open 1.53 → Signal 4.00 → Max 251.00 +2.5 drift

Lille OSC · signal: 0-1 @ 1h 15m · final: 0-1

Soccer Piast Gliwice vs LKP Motor Lublin LOST · Home

Open 2.15 → Signal 3.80 → Max 251.00 +1.6 drift

Piast Gliwice · signal: 0-1 @ 10m · final: 1-2

Soccer Galatasaray vs Juventus LOST · Away

Open 2.27 → Signal 3.45 → Max 251.00 +1.2 drift

Juventus · signal: 2-2 @ 1h 33m · final: 4-2

Soccer RAAL La Louviere vs KV Mechelen LOST · Home

Open 2.32 → Signal 4.15 → Max 251.00 +1.8 drift

RAAL La Louviere · signal: 0-0 @ 24m · final: 0-2

Soccer SCR Altach vs FK Austria Wien LOST · Away

Open 2.65 → Signal 8.00 → Max 251.00 +5.3 drift

FK Austria Wien · signal: 1-0 @ 31m · final: 2-1

Cross-cutting metrics

What you can only see when flips and drift signals share the same pipeline.

72.8%

Drift signals that became flips

2,503 of 3,438

83.1%

Flips with prior drift signal

2,503 of 3,013

Recovery rate by drift size

Of drift signals at each magnitude, what fraction saw the favorite return below 2.0 by end?

Drift bucket

Signals

Recovery rate

Fav win rate

+1.0-2.0

500

84.0%

54.2%

+2.0-3.0

257

67.7%

40.1%

+3.0-5.0

388

41.5%

24.2%

+5.0-10.0

994

10.5%

4.1%

+10.0+

1,299

2.2%

1.4%