dog_starting_odds -0.523 Stays flipped Opening odds of the underdog. +1.0 = each 1.0 higher dog odds shifts log-odds of recovery by this amount. e.g. dog opening at 4.0 vs 3.0 → −0.52 less likely to recover.
odds_ratio +0.502 Recovery Fav odds ÷ dog odds at match start. +1.0 = each unit increase in ratio shifts recovery log-odds by +0.50. Bigger mismatch between fav/dog → more recovery.
shin_prob_at_flip +0.420 Recovery Shin-devigged true probability of the favorite at the flip moment (0–1 scale). +0.1 = each 10% higher true prob → +0.042 recovery log-odds. Stronger fav at flip → more recovery.
IceHockey +0.230 Recovery Binary flag (1 if IceHockey, 0 otherwise). Coefficient = log-odds shift vs baseline sport. Positive → IceHockey recovers more, negative → stays flipped more.
velocity_at_flip +0.136 Recovery Instantaneous speed of odds change at the flip moment (units/min). Each +1.0 velocity → +0.136 recovery log-odds. Faster spike → more likely a market overreaction → recovery.
Tennis -0.105 Stays flipped Binary flag (1 if Tennis, 0 otherwise). Coefficient = log-odds shift vs baseline sport. Positive → Tennis recovers more, negative → stays flipped more.
Soccer -0.091 Stays flipped Binary flag (1 if Soccer, 0 otherwise). Coefficient = log-odds shift vs baseline sport. Positive → Soccer recovers more, negative → stays flipped more.
Basketball +0.087 Recovery Binary flag (1 if Basketball, 0 otherwise). Coefficient = log-odds shift vs baseline sport. Positive → Basketball recovers more, negative → stays flipped more.
Baseball -0.079 Stays flipped Binary flag (1 if Baseball, 0 otherwise). Coefficient = log-odds shift vs baseline sport. Positive → Baseball recovers more, negative → stays flipped more.
score_diff_at_flip +0.068 Recovery Score lead of the underdog when the flip happened. Each +1 goal/point lead → +0.068 recovery log-odds. Bigger deficit paradoxically → slight recovery.